EXCLUSIVE : Will Patrick Mahomes be “UPSET” by Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins?

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The Miami Dolphins will head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday night in arguably the most exciting game of Wild Card Weekend. In a repeat of their Week 9 over in Germany, can the Dolphins get revenge, or will the Chiefs make it two wins over Miami this season? We break it down in our Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction.

Let’s examine the Dolphins vs. Chiefs betting odds ahead of Wild Card Weekend before I give my early week prediction for the game and any picks I like based on the current betting lines.

Both the Dolphins and Chiefs struggled in the second half of the season, but while Miami could not hold on to win their division, Kansas City managed to clinch the AFC West. Miami enters this weekend having lost three of their last five games, while the Chiefs recovered from four losses in six weeks after their bye to win their final two games.

One major concern for the Dolphins has been their struggles both on the road and against teams with winning records. On the road this year, the Dolphins are 4-4, with those losses coming against the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and the Chiefs over in Germany.

In contrast, their four road victories have come against the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders. The four road wins came against teams with a combined 20-48 record, while their four road losses came against teams with a combined 46-22 record.

This season, the Dolphins have only beaten one team that finished the year with a winning record, the Dallas Cowboys. The problem there is that the Cowboys have their own issues, finishing 4-5 on the road this year. Even then, Miami only just held on to defeat Dallas 22-20.

The other major concern for the Dolphins is that their pass rush and defensive front in general is extremely short on bodies. Injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips have taken away the Dolphins’ two best pass rushers, leaving them relying on the likes of Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah, one of whom is on the practice squad, and the other was a healthy scratch two weeks ago.

One of the keys to beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is a strong pass rush. The Dolphins’ front had their moments against the Bills on Sunday but struggled as the second half wore on. If that happens again this week, they could well be vulnerable to another fourth-quarter comeback like they saw from the Bills in Week 18.

Kansas City has been far from convincing this season, especially on offense. They finished the year ranked 15th in the league in terms of points scored, averaging 21.8 points per game. However, the Chiefs’ defense has been incredibly impressive, ranking second in the league, allowing an average of 17.3 points per game.

The Chiefs have only allowed more than 21 points once this season. They also held this Dolphins team to just 14 points on a neutral field in Germany. The biggest concern with the current line of -3.5 is whether the Chiefs’ offense can get to 24+ points.

In their road losses this year, the Dolphins allowed 48, 31, 21, and 56 points. The 21 was the neutral site game in Germany, so in road losses against teams playing in their home stadium, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 45 points per game.